Business Advisory Firm Expects Criminal Cryptocurrency Transactions to Fall by 30% by 2024

Gartner, an advisory firm, has predicted that criminal cryptocurrency transactions or transfers will fall by 30% by 2024. The firm says factors such as the transparency of the blockchain, as well as the democratization of fraud prevention tools, will contribute to this decline in such transactions.

Blockchain Transparency

Despite the surge in the value of crypto-related crimes recorded in the past year, Gartner, a business advisory firm, predicts that “successful cryptocurrency thefts and ransomware payments will drop by 30%” in two years’ time. According to Gartner, such a drop will stem from “criminals’ inability to move and spend funds off-blockchain networks.”

In an article published on the firm’s blog, Gartner explains that this prediction is predicated on four main factors and one of such factors is the transparency of blockchains which renders them less than ideal for bad actors. In explaining why such transparency is key, the blog post states:

Contrary to popular lore, cryptocurrencies are not a haven for anonymous criminals. In fact, armed with smart analytics, it’s easier to follow money trails on blockchains than it is on legacy payment networks, however a circuitous route they may take.

To illustrate this point, the article refers to the 23 blockchains which it says “make up approximately 99% of all blockchains’ market cap.” According to Gartner, it is easier to integrate the so-called anti-blockchain-fraud systems with the 23 blockchains than with thousands of enterprise systems and payment networks.

Although the turning of blockchain metadata into useful information might prove challenging, the advisory firm’s article concludes that when this is done properly it gives those going after criminals the ability to flag suspect payments and addresses.

Another factor, which according to the Gartner blog article will contribute to the decline in crypto crimes, is the democratization of fraud prevention tools that are currently being used by blockchain intelligence firms.

Increasing anti-ransomware measures imposed by governments, as well as the fact that most blockchain-related transactions go through regulated virtual asset service providers (VASPs), means criminals will increasingly favor moving ill-gotten funds through opaque legacy payment networks than via the blockchain.